USDJPY: Bearish Pressure Builds Below 159.05 Pivot

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of USDJPY for September 03, 2026.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY

USDJPY Daily Chart Insight

(USDJPY Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

USDJPY maintains a bearish daily bias after its recent rebound failed to restore the broader bullish structure. Price has fallen back to 158.637 and is trading below the red 16-period moving average , purple 50-period moving average, and blue 100-period moving average. The MA16 remains below the MA100 and MA50, while the MA50 is turning lower and the MA100 has flattened, leaving sellers with broader technical advantage.

RSI(14) at 42.18 also remains below the neutral 50 area. The 158.00 region is now the immediate support to watch, while the 159.45–160.10 area represents the first significant recovery barrier. A clearer directional confirmation requires either a sustained break below the August support area or a recovery back above the moving-average cluster.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (158.00 area): Immediate support around the recent daily trading lows and current downside test.
• Support 2 (157.30 area): Marks the visible August swing-low region.
• Support 3 (155.20 area): Represents the major lower support established during the sharp late-July decline.
• Resistance 1 (159.45–160.10): Recent rebound resistance combined with the MA16 and MA100 area.
• Resistance 2 (160.80 area): Aligns closely with the declining MA50 and forms the next recovery barrier.
• Resistance 3 (162.20 area): A higher resistance zone formed around the previous elevated trading structure.

USDJPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(USDJPY 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

USDJPY carries a clear bearish short-term bias following the sharp rejection from above 160.00 and the subsequent breakdown through all three moving averages. Price at 158.661 remains below the red 16-period moving average, purple 50-period moving average, and blue 100-period moving average. The MA16 has turned sharply lower toward the MA100, while the MA50 is beginning to lose its upward slope, confirming a significant deterioration in short-term momentum.

RSI(14) has dropped to 28.85, placing momentum in oversold territory and increasing the possibility of a temporary rebound or sideways pause after the recent sell-off. Nevertheless, sellers retain control while price remains below the moving-average cluster around 159.45 and above.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a lower-probability alternative, triggered by a decisive break and hold above 159.45. Such a recovery could expose the 159.63–159.81 region as the next visible resistance zone.
• Bearish correction is the higher-probability outcome while price remains below 159.45, with a decisive breakdown beneath the 158.55 area potentially extending losses toward the recent 158.19 low and then the 158.01 region.

USDJPY Pivot Indicator

(USDJPY 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

USDJPY is trading around 158.82, below the main pivot at 159.05, maintaining an immediate bearish M30 bias. Price is consolidating after the sharp breakdown, but remains beneath both the pivot and the declining moving-average structure.

RSI stands at 38.89, remaining below the neutral 50 level and confirming that buying momentum is still limited. MACD remains below the zero line at -0.19, although the MACD line has started to turn higher above its signal line, suggesting that bearish momentum is easing slightly. Overall, the pair remains under downside pressure while below 159.05, but the improving momentum indicators leave room for a short-term rebound before the next directional move.

• Bearish Breakdown: The bearish preference remains active while USDJPY stays below the 159.05 pivot. Renewed selling pressure could drive the pair toward 158.25 as the first downside target, followed by 158.07. Confirmation would be strengthened if RSI remains below 50 and turns lower again, while MACD stays below the zero line and rolls back beneath its signal line.
• Bullish Reversal: A decisive break and hold above 159.05 would weaken the immediate bearish setup and open the way toward 159.37, followed by 159.55. A stronger reversal signal would require RSI to recover toward or above 50, accompanied by continued improvement in MACD and a sustained move above its signal line.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.